Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
